Trade Analysis and Trading Advice for the British Pound

The test of the 1.2904 level coincided with the MACD indicator beginning its downward movement from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for selling the pound and resulting in a 30-point drop in the pair.

However, the absence of UK economic data and a good technical correction quickly brought demand back to the pound. Despite this, the pair failed to update its local high, leaving new buyers—who were attracted by the prospect of quick gains—trapped as their profits quickly evaporated. Once again, the market demonstrated its unpredictability, reminding traders of the importance of a measured approach to trading.

Unfortunately, the second half of the day is also lacking in fundamental data, so I expect range-bound trading within the channel formed during today's sessions. However, some volatility could be triggered by headlines from Donald Trump. Investors will closely monitor any statements from central bank officials or unexpected geopolitical events that might impact market sentiment.

Overall, a calm trading session is expected, characterized by a lack of a clear trend and sideways price movement.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will rely on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buying the pound is possible if the price reaches 1.2937 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.2979. At 1.2979, I plan to exit long positions and sell the pound for a 30–35 point pullback. The pound's growth is expected in line with the prevailing trend.Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2910 level, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. The expected targets are 1.2937 and 1.2979.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Selling the pound is planned if the price falls to 1.2910 (red line on the chart), which would likely trigger a sharp decline. The key target for sellers will be 1.2869, where I plan to exit shorts and buy for a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure will intensify if the daily high is updated.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.2937, while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside, targeting 1.2910 and 1.2869.

Chart Breakdown

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line: Suggested Take Profit level or an area to exit long positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line: Suggested Take Profit level or an area to exit short positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notes for Beginner Traders

Exercise caution when making trading decisions. Before major economic reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. Always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-losses can lead to rapidly losing your entire deposit, especially if you use large trading volumes and ignore money management principles.

A clear trading plan is essential for success. Following a structured approach, such as the one outlined above, is far more effective than making impulsive decisions based on short-term market movements.