Analysis of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the Euro

The test of the 1.0831 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I refrained from buying the euro and did not open any trades.

In the second half of the day, a series of U.S. labor market reports could exert further pressure on the dollar. Closely monitoring these data will help assess the current state of the U.S. economy and predict the Federal Reserve's next steps. Strong employment and wage growth figures may signal an overheated economy, potentially prompting the Fed to maintain a more aggressive stance. Conversely, weaker-than-expected data could indicate slowing economic growth, leading the regulator to consider further monetary easing.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech will be particularly important, as he is expected to comment on recent economic data and monetary policy outlook. Investors will scrutinize any hints of a policy shift. If Powell expresses concerns about inflation or signals the Fed's readiness to keep rates unchanged, this could support the U.S. dollar and put pressure on EUR/USD. On the other hand, a dovish tone suggesting the Fed is leaning toward rate cuts could weaken the dollar and push EUR/USD higher.

For intraday trading, I will focus on executing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

One strategy for buying the euro today is to enter near 1.0872, aiming for an increase toward 1.0929. At this level, I plan to exit long positions and consider selling, expecting a 30-35 point correction. However, this scenario relies on weak U.S. data. Before entering a buy position, it is crucial to ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Another buying opportunity will arise if 1.0842 is tested twice while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would indicate limited downward potential and a potential market reversal to the upside. In this case, targets would be 1.0872 and 1.0929.

Sell Signal

A short position can be initiated after the price reaches 1.0842, targeting a decline to 1.0792, where I plan to exit shorts and open long positions on a rebound, expecting a 20-25 point correction. Selling pressure may return if U.S. data is stronger than expected. Before entering a sell trade, it is essential to confirm that the MACD is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.

Another selling opportunity will be available if 1.0872 is tested twice while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal. The expected downward targets are 1.0842 and 1.0792.

Key Chart Elements

• The thin green line marks the entry price for long positions.
• The thick green line represents a key resistance level where take profit orders or manual profit-taking may be considered, as further growth is unlikely.
• The thin red line marks the entry price for short positions.
• The thick red line indicates a potential support level where take profit orders may be placed, as further decline is less likely.
• The MACD indicator should be monitored for overbought and oversold conditions before entering trades.

Final Considerations

Beginner traders should approach market entries with caution, especially before major economic releases. The best strategy in such cases is to remain on the sidelines to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without proper risk management, traders can quickly deplete their capital, especially when using large trade volumes.

To trade successfully, it is crucial to have a well-defined trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on short-term market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.