On Tuesday, EUR/USD rebounded from the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0458, initiating another upward movement towards the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.0533. However, once again, bulls fell short by just a few pips. From a technical analysis perspective, the price movements and signals appear nearly ideal. Today, we observe yet another attempt to return to the 1.0458 level. A rebound from this mark may trigger another bullish push.

The wave structure on the hourly chart has become somewhat ambiguous, yet signs of a bullish trend persist. The most recent downward wave did not break the previous low, while the latest upward wave exceeded the previous peak. This suggests that a bullish trend is still in place, or alternatively, we are seeing a complex sideways movement, which is more visible on the 4-hour chart.

On Tuesday, the news background was weak once again. Traders would have preferred more active trading, but there were no significant economic or political updates. The only notable release was Germany's final Q4 GDP report, which confirmed a 0.2% contraction—a widely expected result. Other reports, such as U.S. Consumer Confidence, were of limited importance. The index dropped to 98.3, but it provided little insight into the overall U.S. economy, leading to minimal market reaction.

The lack of significant news is reflected in the price action. For the past three days, the euro has been moving within a horizontal range on the hourly chart. Given another day of weak fundamentals, it is highly likely that traders will remain within the 1.0458–1.0533 range today. However, signals from these levels may provide trading opportunities.

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD returned to the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0436 and stabilized above it. However, the price action in 2025 has been largely sideways, indicating a range-bound market. The ascending trend channel is merely nominal, as the price is not consistently respecting it. Additionally, no divergence signals are present across key indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

During the latest reporting week, institutional traders opened 4,726 long positions and closed 8,279 short positions. Despite this, the overall sentiment among non-commercial traders remains bearish. Total long positions: 170,000. Total short positions: 221,000

For 21 consecutive weeks, major players have been reducing their euro holdings, reinforcing a bearish trend. Occasionally, bulls gain control, but this is more of an exception than a rule.

The primary driver of dollar weakness—the expectation of Federal Reserve monetary policy easing—has already been priced in. As a result, there is little incentive for further selling of the U.S. dollar. However, recent news from both the EU and the U.S. has provided some support for bulls, causing a temporary weakening of the bearish advantage. The number of long contracts has been increasing for three weeks in a row, indicating that some buyers are cautiously returning.

Economic Calendar for the EU and U.S.:

• EU – German Consumer Confidence Index (07:00 UTC)
• U.S. – New Home Sales (15:00 UTC)

February 26 presents another day of minor economic releases. The impact on market sentiment is expected to be weak or negligible.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Sell positions could be considered if EUR/USD rebounds from 1.0533, with a target at 1.0458. Buy positions may be opened if EUR/USD rebounds from 1.0458, with a target at 1.0533. Additional selling opportunities could arise if EUR/USD closes below 1.0458 on the hourly chart, with further downward targets at 1.0435 and 1.0411.

Fibonacci Levels Used for Analysis:

• Hourly Chart: 1.0533–1.0213
• 4-Hour Chart: 1.0603–1.1214