Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro

The price test at 1.0448 in the first half of the day coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly downward from the zero mark, limiting the euro's downward potential. As a result, I did not enter a sell position and missed the downward movement.

The euro resumed its decline due to the lack of significant economic data from the eurozone. Concerns about Donald Trump's trade war potentially causing major global economic disruptions weighed on market sentiment. Investors sought safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar, leaving the euro under pressure.

In the second half of the day, the U.S. housing market reports on building permits and housing starts will be released. These indicators are crucial for assessing economic conditions and future housing demand. An increase in permits and new housing starts could indicate optimism among builders and potential growth in the housing sector. Additionally, the FOMC minutes will provide insight into discussions within the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee, particularly regarding inflation, interest rates, and economic growth prospects.

A combination of these reports may significantly impact investor sentiment and market dynamics. Strong housing data along with a dovish Fed outlook could weaken the U.S. dollar, while weak data and a hawkish Fed stance could further strengthen the greenback and put additional pressure on the euro.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy EUR/USD if the price reaches 1.0440, aiming for an increase to 1.0473. At 1.0473, I plan to exit and sell the euro for a 30-35 point downward correction. Expect an upward move only if positive news emerges. Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: A buy position is also valid if the price tests 1.0415 twice, while MACD is in the oversold zone. This would indicate limited downward potential and a likely reversal toward 1.0440 and 1.0473.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Sell EUR/USD upon reaching 1.0415, with a target of 1.0386. I will exit and buy back in the opposite direction for a 20-25 point retracement. The pair could come under renewed pressure at any time. Before selling, confirm that MACD is below the zero mark and starting to decline.

Scenario #2: Another sell opportunity arises if 1.0440 is tested twice, with MACD in the overbought zone. This setup signals a reversal downward, with expected movement toward 1.0415 and 1.0386.

Market Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price for buy trades
• Thick green line – expected take-profit area for buy trades, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for sell trades
• Thick red line – expected take-profit area for sell trades, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – key tool for identifying overbought and oversold market conditions

Important Trading Advice:

Beginner forex traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before key economic reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize risks. Trading without stop-losses can lead to rapid account depletion, especially when managing large trade volumes without proper risk management.

For successful trading, it is essential to follow a structured trading plan like the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on short-term market fluctuations is a losing strategy for intraday traders.