Trade Analysis and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The 151.93 price test occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero level, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the U.S. dollar and skipped the downward move.

The lack of U.S. economic data yesterday had an impact, weakening the dollar's position in the second half of the day. However, no major sell-off occurred, and USD/JPY remained within a broad sideways channel. The absence of Japanese economic data also contributed to the declining volatility of the pair.

Any statements from Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials regarding interest rates could quickly bring selling pressure back to USD/JPY, so traders should be prepared for such events.

Additionally, traders should consider global risk sentiment: During periods of market instability, investors seek safe-haven assets, such as the Japanese yen, which could strengthen against the U.S. dollar, even without direct intervention from the BoJ. This highlights the importance of monitoring not only Japanese economic news and policymakers' statements but also global financial market trends.

A comprehensive analysis is key to making well-informed trading decisions in USD/JPY.

For my intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Buying USD/JPY is possible at 152.08 (green line on the chart) with an upward target of 152.54 (thicker green line on the chart). At 152.54, I will exit the buy trade and open a short position, expecting a 30-35 point retracement. It's preferable to buy the pair during pullbacks or significant declines.

Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero level and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: Another buy opportunity arises if the price tests 151.84 twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This scenario limits downward potential and triggers a bullish reversal. Target levels: 152.08 and 152.54.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: Selling USD/JPY is planned after breaking below 151.84 (red line on the chart), which could trigger a sharp decline. The primary bearish target is 151.39, where I will exit the trade and initiate a buy position for a 20-25 point retracement. Selling pressure could return at any moment.

Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero level and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: Another sell opportunity is possible if the price tests 152.08 twice while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This scenario limits upward potential and triggers a bearish reversal. Target levels: 151.84 and 151.39.

Chart Breakdown

• Thin Green Line – Entry price for buying the asset.
• Thick Green Line – Suggested Take Profit level or an area where traders can secure profits, as further upside is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line – Entry price for selling the asset.
• Thick Red Line – Suggested Take Profit level or an area where traders can secure profits, as further downside is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – When entering trades, consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders

• Exercise caution when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of key fundamental reports to avoid sudden price swings.
• Always use stop-loss orders when trading during news releases to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without risk management.
• A structured trading plan is essential for success. Following a predefined strategy, like the one outlined above, helps maintain discipline and avoid emotional trading.
• Avoid making impulsive trading decisions based on short-term price movements, as this is a losing strategy for intraday traders.