empty
30.01.2025 12:59 PM
Forecast for EUR/USD on January 30, 2025

The EUR/USD pair continued to trade below the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0437 on Wednesday, breaking through the upward trend channel. This suggests that bears may soon take control, with a downward target at 1.0376. If a new bearish trend develops, the decline of the euro could be much more significant. However, if the pair manages to consolidate above 1.0437, the euro could regain momentum and resume its rise toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.0507.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure remains relatively clear. The last completed upward wave broke through the previous high, while the current downward wave has yet to break the previous low. This indicates that the bullish trend is still intact, but recent waves have been small and weak. To invalidate the current bullish trend, the pair must fall below the 1.0338–1.0346 support zone.

Despite the potential for strong market reactions on Wednesday, Jerome Powell's speech failed to provide any meaningful direction. Traders received no clear signals from the Fed, as Powell's comments remained neutral and cautious. The focus now shifts to today's ECB meeting, where markets will be looking for more decisive remarks from Christine Lagarde. Unlike the Fed, which maintained its policy stance, the ECB is almost certain to cut rates, which could trigger a renewed sell-off in the euro. While the Fed's decision was neutral, the ECB's rate cut will be decisively dovish, and the more Lagarde signals further monetary easing, the greater the chances of a EUR/USD decline.

Additionally, macroeconomic data is unlikely to support the euro. German and Eurozone GDP reports are not expected to bring positive surprises, while the U.S. economy continues to show strong growth. Although bears missed their chance to push the pair lower yesterday, they will have several more opportunities today.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar after forming a bearish divergence on the CCI indicator, securing a move below the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.0436. This suggests that the pair could continue its decline toward 1.0332. However, the downtrend might be limited, as bulls previously managed to break above the downward trend channel. At the moment, no new divergences are forming on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

This image is no longer relevant

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 4,905 long positions and 6,994 short positions, reinforcing bearish sentiment among non-commercial traders. Currently, there are 167,000 long positions and 230,000 short positions in the market.

For 18 consecutive weeks, large institutional players have been selling euros, confirming a strong and sustained bearish trend. Occasionally, bulls have taken control for brief periods, but these instances have been exceptions rather than the rule.

The main driver behind dollar weakness in recent months has been expectations of Fed rate cuts. However, this factor has already been priced in, meaning there is no longer a fundamental reason to sell the U.S. dollar. While new reasons may emerge over time, the dollar's strength remains the more probable scenario. Technical analysis also confirms the continuation of the long-term bearish trend, suggesting that EUR/USD is likely to decline further.

Key Economic Events for the Eurozone and the U.S.:

  • Eurozone GDP (Q4) – Germany (09:00 UTC)
  • Eurozone GDP (Q4) (10:00 UTC)
  • Eurozone Unemployment Rate (10:00 UTC)
  • ECB Interest Rate Decision (13:15 UTC)
  • U.S. GDP (Q4) (13:30 UTC)
  • U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC)
  • ECB Press Conference with Christine Lagarde (13:45 UTC)

January 30 is packed with high-impact economic events, meaning market sentiment is likely to be highly volatile throughout the day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

Sell positions remain relevant, with targets at 1.0376 and 1.0346, as long as the pair holds below the upward trend channel on the hourly chart. Buying opportunities could emerge if EUR/USD breaks above 1.0437, with a potential target at 1.0507. However, if this happens, selling will no longer be a viable strategy.

Fibonacci levels are set at:

  • 1.0437–1.0179 on the hourly chart
  • 1.0603–1.1214 on the 4-hour chart
Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Pronóstico para el Bitcoin el 21 de febrero de 2025

Bitcoin El Bitcoin ha cambiado de opinión sobre el desarrollo de una caída hacia soportes objetivos cómodos, y en su lugar, siguiendo el sentimiento de riesgo general, ha revertido desde

Laurie Bailey 07:23 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Bitcoin - análisis técnico de la situación

Viernes, y el Bitcoin sigue esperando. Ninguna de las partes enfrentadas tiene prisa por presentarse y ser activa. En la incertidumbre actual, el posicionamiento de los principales índices de referencia

Evangelos Poulakis 07:45 2025-02-14 UTC+2

Previsión para el gas natural (GN) del 5 de febrero de 2025

En el gráfico semanal la semana pasada el precio se revirtió desde el nivel de soporte 3.017 - desde los máximos de septiembre 2024, agosto 2023, febrero 2023 y también

Laurie Bailey 07:51 2025-02-05 UTC+2

#NDX - análisis técnico de la situación

A finales del año pasado, el índice marcó un nuevo máximo histórico (22141), tras lo cual se detuvo la subida, comenzó la formación de la corrección y la consolidación. Ahora

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-02-04 UTC+2

Bitcoin 30 Enero - análisis técnico de la situación

A pesar de marcar un nuevo máximo la semana pasada (109986), el Bitcoin detuvo su tendencia alcista y comenzó a formar incertidumbre. Hasta ahora, el formato semanal ha proyectado

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-01-30 UTC+2

#SPX (contrato CFD sobre futuros del SP500). Esperamos que la subida continúe

El contrato CFD sobre futuros del S&P 500 se recupera vigorosamente tras una caída local del lunes por la oleada de noticias sobre el éxito de la empresa china DeepSeek

Pati Gani 11:06 2025-01-29 UTC+2

Nasdaq 100. Se esperan nuevos máximos históricos

La toma de posesión hoy de Donald Trump marcará el inicio del segundo mandato de su presidencia, acompañado de promesas de reforzar la posición de EE. UU. en la escena

Anna Zotova 10:00 2025-01-20 UTC+2

Bitcoin – análisis técnico de la situación

El año pasado los principales logros y ventajas estuvieron del lado de los compradores. El año 2024 les trajo un nuevo máximo histórico (108362,36), superando el máximo anterior registrado

Evangelos Poulakis 06:55 2025-01-20 UTC+2

Análisis técnico para la semana del 16 al 21 de diciembre, del par de divisas GBP/USD.

La semana pasada, el par, moviéndose hacia abajo, rompió el nivel de retroceso del 14,6% – 1,2624 (línea de puntos azul), cerrando la vela semanal en 1,2618. Durante la próxima

Stefan Doll 09:17 2024-12-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD. 10 de diciembre. Los toros agotaron su potencial.

Buenos días, estimados traders. El par EUR/USD el lunes realizó un rebote desde el nivel de corrección del 323,6% – 1,0532, una ligera subida y un regreso al nivel 1,0532

Samir Klishi 11:31 2024-12-10 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback