Trade analysis and tips for trading the British pound
The test of the 1.2905 level occurred when the MACD had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. A second test of 1.2905, while the MACD was in oversold territory, triggered Scenario #2 for buying, which resulted in the pair gaining more than 50 points.
The absence of economic data from the UK allowed the pound to rise, continuing the Asian correction that followed yesterday's sell-off. Investors likely saw this as a buying opportunity, as the market was oversold after a recent string of negative news from the U.S. Additionally, the lack of UK data left the currency market awaiting new drivers, which favored speculative pound buying.
Now investors' attention is focused on a series of key macroeconomic indicators from the U.S. Special emphasis will be placed on GDP change data for Q4, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, and the number of initial jobless claims. The GDP report will provide insight into the resilience of the U.S. economy amid ongoing challenges such as inflation and high interest rates. The PCE Index, being one of the key inflation indicators, will also draw significant attention. Its dynamics will help assess the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's efforts to contain price growth. If the index declines, the dollar may also weaken.
Finally, the jobless claims data will offer a snapshot of the labor market. An increase in claims could indicate deteriorating economic conditions and heightened recession risks.
As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the execution of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at the entry point around 1.2960 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.2998 (thicker green line). Around 1.2998, I will exit the buy positions and open sell trades in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 point move from the level). A pound rally today is only expected following weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2927 level, while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the downward potential of the pair and trigger an upward reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.2960 and 1.2998 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after a breakout below the 1.2927 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be the 1.2875 level, where I plan to exit the sell trades and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point rebound). Sellers will step in if strong U.S. data is released. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2960 level, while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.2927 and 1.2875 can be expected.
Chart Notes:
- Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick green line – estimated price to place Take Profit or manually secure profit, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick red line – estimated price to place Take Profit or manually secure profit, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
- MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is an inherently losing intraday strategy.
