Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price test at 1.0328 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun to move upward from the zero mark, indicating a valid buying entry point. As a result, the pair increased by approximately 40 pips.

Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that there is no urgency to cut interest rates, but his comments were largely overlooked. Powell maintained that monetary easing would only be considered in the event of a severe and unexpected downturn in the labor market. This did not impact market expectations regarding the Fed's rate path for 2025.

Investors appear to be anticipating that upcoming economic data will indicate a slowdown, which may lead the Fed to adjust its stance. The disparity between the Fed's statements and market expectations is contributing to volatility. The future direction of interest rates will largely depend on incoming economic data, particularly the inflation report scheduled for release later today.

During the European session, there are no significant reasons for the euro to weaken in the morning, as the only noteworthy data release is Italy's industrial production report. Even if the figures fall short of expectations, they are unlikely to drive EUR/USD lower, making it more sensible to follow the emerging uptrend. It is essential to remain attentive and responsive to market changes to maximize trading opportunities.

For intraday trading, I will focus on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy EUR/USD at 1.0367 (green line on the chart), targeting an increase to 1.0395. At 1.0395, I plan to exit long positions and initiate a sell trade in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip pullback. The euro's uptrend may continue during the first half of the day. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: Another buying opportunity arises if EUR/USD tests 1.0353 twice in succession, with MACD in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential, triggering an upward market reversal. Expected upside targets: 1.0367 and 1.0395.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Sell EUR/USD after a breakout below 1.0353 (red line on the chart), targeting 1.0331, where I will exit short positions and immediately buy on the rebound, aiming for a 20–25 pip pullback. Selling pressure on the pair is expected to return in the second half of the day. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I will also sell EUR/USD if the price tests 1.0367 twice in succession, with MACD in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upside potential, leading to a downward reversal. Expected downside targets: 1.0353 and 1.0331.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Critical for identifying overbought and oversold zones to guide market entry decisions.

Important Note for Beginner Traders

• Always approach market entry decisions cautiously.
• Avoid trading during major news releases to sidestep volatile price swings.
• If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses.
• Trading without stop-loss orders or money management practices can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when using large volumes.
• A clear trading plan, like the one outlined above, is essential for successful trading. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently disadvantageous for intraday traders.