Analysis of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the British Pound

The test of the 1.2892 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I refrained from buying the pound. However, selling from 1.2936 on a rebound, as mentioned in my morning forecast, provided an opportunity to capture around 20 points in profit.

Today's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate reports could disappoint, increasing pressure on the U.S. dollar. Investors are concerned that weak macroeconomic indicators may push the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates. If the number of new jobs falls significantly below forecasts, it could indicate a slowdown in economic growth. Additionally, a rising unemployment rate would signal potential problems in the U.S. economy. The market's reaction to these factors will depend on how expectations for the Fed's future actions evolve.

For intraday trading, I will primarily rely on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

The first buying opportunity for the pound today is near 1.2942, aiming for a rise to 1.2984. Around this level, I plan to exit long positions and open short trades, expecting a 30-35 point downward correction. However, this scenario depends on weak U.S. data. Before buying, it is crucial to confirm that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Another buy opportunity will arise if 1.2912 is tested twice while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would indicate limited downward potential and signal a market reversal to the upside. In this case, the targets would be 1.2942 and 1.2984.

Sell Signal

A short position can be initiated if the price breaks below 1.2912, potentially triggering a sharp decline to 1.2869. At this level, I plan to exit shorts and open long positions on a rebound, anticipating a 20-25 point correction. Sellers will become more active if U.S. data is stronger than expected. Before entering a sell trade, it is important to confirm that the MACD is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.

Another selling opportunity will be available if 1.2942 is tested twice while the MACD is in overbought territory. This scenario would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal. The expected downward targets are 1.2912 and 1.2869.

Key Chart Elements

• The thin green line represents the entry price for long positions.
• The thick green line marks a key resistance level where take profit orders or manual profit-taking may be considered, as further growth is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price for short positions.
• The thick red line marks a potential support level where take profit orders may be placed, as further decline is less likely.
• The MACD indicator should be monitored for overbought and oversold conditions before entering trades.

Final Considerations

Beginner traders should approach market entries cautiously, especially before major economic releases. The best strategy in such cases is to remain on the sidelines to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without proper risk management, traders can quickly deplete their capital, especially when using large trade volumes.

To trade successfully, it is essential to have a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on short-term market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.