Trade Analysis & Trading Tips for the Euro

There were no tests of the outlined levels in the first half of the day. The absence of economic data and low volatility were the primary reasons for the lack of trading opportunities. The market is in a wait-and-see mode, like a predator before the leap. Every word and tone from today's Fed speakers will be carefully analyzed. Investors are eager for hints on potential monetary easing, which explains why they are not rushing to buy the U.S. dollar.

However, given the recent mixed inflation and employment data, any clear signals from the Fed are unlikely. Any ambiguity or disagreement among Fed officials—Powell, Bowman, and Williams—could trigger sharp currency swings. Traders are minimizing risks and waiting for clarity.

Powell's testimony will be the focal point for investors and analysts. Special attention will be paid to his views on inflation, labor market conditions, and the U.S. economy's resilience amid Trump's trade tariffs.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buying EUR/USD is possible at 1.0328 (green line on the chart) with an upside target of 1.0374. At 1.0374, I will exit the trade and consider selling the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point retracement. Euro strength today is only possible if the Fed adopts a dovish stance.

Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: Another buy opportunity arises if the price tests 1.0310 twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This scenario limits downward potential and triggers a bullish reversal. Target levels: 1.0328 and 1.0374.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Selling EUR/USD is planned after breaking below 1.0310 (red line on the chart) with a downward target of 1.0269. At 1.0269, I will exit the trade and enter a buy position, aiming for a 20-25 point retracement. Selling pressure could return at any moment.

Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.

Chart Breakdown

• Thin Green Line – Entry price for buying the asset.
• Thick Green Line – Suggested Take Profit level or an area where traders can secure profits, as further upside is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line – Entry price for selling the asset.
• Thick Red Line – Suggested Take Profit level or an area where traders can secure profits, as further downside is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – When entering trades, consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders

• Be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of key fundamental reports to avoid sudden price swings.
• Always use stop-loss orders when trading during news releases to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without risk management.
• A structured trading plan is essential for success. Following a predefined strategy, like the one outlined above, helps maintain discipline and avoid emotional trading.
• Avoid making impulsive trading decisions based on short-term price movements, as this is a losing strategy for intraday traders.