Trump shakes markets: panic sweeps exchanges on trade war threat
Global markets descended into chaos on Monday after sharp remarks by US President Donald Trump, who signaled plans to extend tariff measures to virtually all countries. His comments have deepened investor anxiety over an escalating global trade conflict that could drag the world economy into a recession.
Tariffs for everyone: hopes for loophole collapse
Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump made it clear that there would be no exceptions. That statement dashed expectations of partial exemptions. On Tuesday, he is expected to receive formal recommendations, with starting tariff levels likely to be announced Wednesday. On Thursday, the White House may unveil tariffs on imported automobiles.
Flight to safety: gold and yen surge
Amid rising uncertainty, investors rushed into safe-haven assets. The Japanese yen strengthened, demand for government bonds rose, and gold soared, hitting record levels.
Futures slide as confidence cracks
S&P 500 futures fell 0.8%, extending losses from Friday. Nasdaq futures dropped 1.4%. European indices also came under pressure, with EURO STOXX 50 down 0.8% and FTSE and DAX each sliding 0.5%.
Brussels ready to retaliate — or compromise
According to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the European Union will not stand aside, with reciprocal tariffs already under discussion. At the same time, sources say Brussels may consider a compromise, including a package of concessions that could be offered to Washington.
Japan's market hit hard: auto giants lead Nikkei's 4% plunge
The Japanese Nikkei led losses in Asia, tumbling 4.1%, marking its worst session in six months. The steepest drops were among automakers, which have been rattled by Trump's threat of 25% tariffs on imported cars.
Asia-Pacific markets buckle under pressure
Markets across the Asia-Pacific region opened the week sharply lower. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index fell 1.9%, while South Korea's KOSPI dropped 3%, reflecting a surge in investor panic.
China's market shows modest decline
Against the backdrop of a global downturn, China's blue-chip CSI 300 index slipped a modest 1.0%. Even news of a slight uptick in March manufacturing activity — in line with analyst forecasts — failed to clear the clouds hanging over Chinese markets.
Economists warn: tariff blow could boomerang on US
Many analysts are voicing concern that new tariffs could hit not just the global economy but the United States itself. The impact may be especially painful given the Federal Reserve's limited room to maneuver, as rising inflation could blunt the effectiveness of interest rate cuts as a policy tool.
Goldman Sachs revises forecast: recession no longer distant
Goldman Sachs has raised its probability of a US recession to 35%, up from a previous estimate of 20%. According to the bank's analysts, Trump may announce a new round of trade restrictions as early as April 2. The average tariff rate on imports from all US trading partners is expected to reach around 15%.
Inflation rises, consumption slows: macro signals turn worrisome
Friday's data added fuel to the fire. Core inflation in February came in above expectations — a troubling sign for the Fed as it balances price growth with economic momentum. Meanwhile, consumer spending undershot forecasts, pointing to cooling household demand.
Markets await Friday's jobs data
Focus now shifts to the upcoming March jobs report due Friday. If payroll growth comes in below the projected 140,000, it could heighten fears of an imminent downturn. Additional data on manufacturing, services, trade, and job openings are also due — and could either confirm recession concerns or offer a glimmer of hope for markets.
Bonds climb as US economic outlook dims
In the bond market, sentiment has turned cautious: investors are increasingly betting that US economic growth is set to weaken and that this will outweigh any short-term inflation surge. Expectations are now coalescing around a roughly 79 basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve over the course of the year.
Yields drop: warning sign from Treasury market
Flight from riskier assets has driven the yield on 10-year US Treasuries down to 4.206%. Two-year yields also declined, falling to 3.861%. These levels reflect growing market doubts about the resilience of US growth and reinforce the view that the Fed may be forced to shift toward policy easing.
All eyes on Powell: markets await clarity
The key event of the week will be Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday, which could offer markets a clearer sense of the central bank's trajectory. Ahead of that, a series of remarks from other Fed officials is expected, potentially shaping rate expectations.
Dollar weakens as investors flock to yen and euro
A drop in US. Treasury yields dragged the dollar lower, down 0.6% against the yen to 148.90. The euro is holding steady near $1.0835, while the broader US dollar index extended its losing streak to two sessions, closing at 103.880.
Gold Hits Record High as Investors Flee to Safety
In times of heightened uncertainty, gold reaffirmed its safe-haven status, climbing to a new all-time high of $3,111 per ounce. The surge reflects a global flight from risk and volatile assets into more stable stores of value.
Oil slides again as demand fears linger
Cautious pessimism prevails in the oil market. Brent crude slipped 30 cents to $73.33 a barrel, while WTI dropped 31 cents to $69.05. Fears of slowing economic activity and weakening global demand continue to pressure oil prices.
Tech titans lose their crown: Magnificent Seven under pressure
Once seen as symbols of growth and portfolio mainstays, the so-called "Magnificent Seven" US tech giants are now facing their sixth consecutive wave of heavy selling. Losses are staggering — nearly $2 trillion in market cap has evaporated. Meanwhile, Chinese tech stocks (HSTECH) and European defense firms (SXPARO) are gaining investor attention, gradually pushing US giants out of the spotlight.
US Treasuries show modest but steady gains
Despite turbulence, the US bond market closes the quarter on a moderately positive note. Benchmark Treasuries delivered a 2.7% return, with yields declining more than 20 basis points — signaling solid demand for US government debt as a safe-haven asset.
Germany goes all-in: fiscal brake lifted for defense
In a game-changing move for Europe, Germany announced plans to temporarily abandon its debt brake to ramp up defense spending. The shift comes amid declining US military support. The announcement triggered a spike in German bond yields — up more than 40 basis points, the sharpest quarterly jump since 2023. Notably, this marks the first time since 2021 that German and US bonds are moving in opposite directions.
Japan breaks with tradition: bond yields hit highest levels since 2008
While Europe leans into aggressive fiscal expansion, all eyes in Japan are on the Bank of Japan. Rising expectations of monetary tightening are pushing yields on 10-year Japanese government bonds higher. Japanese government bonds are now trading at levels unseen since 2008. A jump of nearly 50 basis points this quarter marks the sharpest rise since 2003, signaling a potential shift away from Japan's long-standing ultra-low interest rate policy.
Dollar weakness opens window for EM currencies — but not all benefit
As the US dollar retreats — the DXY index is down 4% — emerging market currencies have a rare opportunity to show strength. However, the effect has been uneven: some currencies rallied, while others deepened their losses.
Lira and rupiah weaken on political unrest and fiscal chaos
The Turkish lira took another hit, losing nearly 7%, as investors reacted to the arrest of a key opponent of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, fueling concerns over domestic political stability.In Indonesia, the rupiah fell to levels not seen since the 1998 financial crisis amid mounting doubts over Jakarta's fiscal discipline and growing fears of a renewed military role in governance.
Bitcoin on rollercoaster ride
The crypto market, as always, moves to its own rhythm. Bitcoin surged 20% following Donald Trump's inauguration, only to plunge nearly 30% shortly after. The volatility was triggered by market skepticism toward a proposed US government crypto reserve — an initiative seen as more rhetoric than reality by most investors.
Middle East and oil markets: fragile truce, volatile prices
Oil prices remain volatile, driven not just by supply-demand dynamics but also by geopolitical uncertainty. The tenuous ceasefire between Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah appears increasingly unstable. Any flare-up could send another shockwave through commodity markets.
Gold and copper rally, coffee nears breaking point
Amid rising global risks, gold continues its bullish run, gaining 17% year-to-date. Copper is not far behind, up 11%, defying fears of an economic slowdown.However, the biggest shock comes from coffee. Arabica prices have soared 18% this quarter, nearly doubling over the past year. A series of droughts have devastated crops in key Latin American regions. Coffee lovers, beware: your morning brew may soon come at a much steeper price.
