Macroeconomic Report Analysis:

There are no major macroeconomic events scheduled for Monday. As a result, low volatility and a "boring Monday" are likely—something we haven't seen on the market for quite some time. We believe that the upward correction for both EUR and GBP is not yet complete.

On the daily timeframe, this correction still appears weak. Thus, the euro and pound may continue to lean toward moderate growth for the next few weeks, but it is unlikely to be strong or sustained.

Fundamental Event Analysis:

The only notable fundamental event on Monday is a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde. However, the ECB's most recent meeting took place very recently, making it unlikely that Lagarde will provide any new insights that could surprise the markets. For ECB officials to change their monetary policy outlook, they would need new economic data reflecting a shift in economic trends. No significant reports have been published recently, and the current economic trends and the ECB's policy stance remain clear.

General Conclusions:

On the first trading day of the week, market movements could be unpredictable but are likely to be weak. On Friday, the market showed reluctance to buy the dollar under current conditions. With the global trend being bearish and the medium-term trend also bearish, the market is likely still in a correction phase, with traders accumulating short positions. We anticipate another strong wave of dollar appreciation, but it may take some time to materialize.

Basic Trading System Rules:

1. Signal strength depends on the time required for formation (rebound or breakout). The less time needed, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more false signals occur at a level, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. During a ranging market, signals may be unreliable. If a flat pattern emerges, it's best to stop trading.
4. Trades should be executed between the start of the European session and the middle of the U.S. session. All positions should be closed manually afterward.
5. On the hourly chart, MACD signals should only be used when volatility is high and there is a confirmed trend (supported by a trendline or channel).
6. If two levels are close to each other (5–20 points apart), they should be treated as a single support/resistance zone.
7. When the price moves 15–20 points in the expected direction, place the Stop Loss at breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support & Resistance Levels – Key price levels that act as trade entry/exit points. Take Profit orders can be placed near these levels.
• Trendlines & Channels – (Red lines) Indicate the current market trend, helping traders determine trade direction.
• MACD (14,22,3) – A momentum indicator that can provide additional trading signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, you should trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Those who start trading on the forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.