empty
25.04.2025 12:23 PM
XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

Gold maintains a bearish tone today, though it has slightly recovered from the daily low, climbing back above the $3300 level.

Investors continue to hope for a potential de-escalation in the trade war between the U.S. and China, which supports a positive tone across equity markets. Combined with the moderate strengthening of the U.S. dollar, this has kept traders cautious about opening new long positions in the precious metal.

U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned that trade talks are ongoing, boosting optimism. However, China's Foreign Minister has denied that any current tariff negotiations with the U.S. are taking place, which is tempering market optimism and supporting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

The U.S. dollar is gaining support from positive macroeconomic data. The U.S. Department of Labor reported a slight increase in initial jobless claims to 222,000, indicating a resilient labor market. Additionally, durable goods orders in March jumped by 9.2%, significantly exceeding the 2% forecast. Transportation equipment rose for a third consecutive month, surging by 27%.

Amid these figures, Federal Reserve officials are discussing the possibility of rate cuts. According to Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, such a cut could occur as early as June if compelling data on the economy emerges. Fed Governor Christopher Waller also supports lowering rates if tariffs begin to negatively impact the labor market. Traders are still pricing in the likelihood of at least three rate cuts by the end of the year.

Geopolitical tensions also persist, helping to limit the decline in gold prices.

From a technical perspective, the key resistance level stands at $3370. A successful breakout above this mark would open the path to $3400. A continued upward move could reach an interim barrier at $3425, above which bulls may attempt to reclaim the psychological level of $3500.

On the other hand, weakness below $3330 would lead to a decline toward the weekly low near $3260. A break below this level would open the door for a further drop toward $3230 and $3200. This would signal that the market has peaked and that the short-term bias is shifting in favor of the bears.

However, as long as oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, bulls have not lost their strength.

Today, for better trading opportunities, it's worth watching the release of the revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the U.S.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

RBA Turns Increasingly Dovish, Reducing Chances of AUD/USD Recovery

The RBA cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% on Wednesday, in line with market expectations. At the concluding press conference, the RBA Governor acknowledged that

Kuvat Raharjo 12:26 2025-05-22 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is retreating after reaching its highest level in nearly two weeks. This pullback lacks clear fundamental triggers and is likely to remain limited due to several supportive factors. Expectations

Irina Yanina 12:21 2025-05-22 UTC+2

NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The NZD/USD pair is pulling back after reaching a weekly high around the 0.5965–0.5970 level and is currently trading near 0.5920, marking a new daily low. The release

Irina Yanina 12:18 2025-05-22 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CAD pair is encountering difficulties in its attempt to recover following an overnight rebound from the 1.3815–1.3810 level, indicating a continuation of the week-long downtrend. Oil prices are rebounding

Irina Yanina 12:12 2025-05-22 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Inflation, Road Tax, and the Outlook for a Northern Trend

The GBP/USD pair hit a new three-year high yesterday, reacting to a sharp spike in UK inflation. However, the significance of the inflation report should not be overstated

Irina Manzenko 11:58 2025-05-22 UTC+2

The Market Is Losing Buyers

If you harm your relationship with your neighbors, don't expect them to offer you help. Donald Trump's tariffs and subsequent coercive negotiations have diminished the willingness of other countries

Marek Petkovich 09:49 2025-05-22 UTC+2

Changes in the U.S. Tax System May Exert Localized Pressure on Market Demand (there is a likelihood of a decline in #SPX and gold prices)

The chaos and instability caused by Donald Trump, both in the U.S. and around the world, have become a regular occurrence. However, they still contribute to significant market volatility

Pati Gani 09:49 2025-05-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 22: A New Blow to the Dollar: "One Big Beautiful Bill Act"

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar has been falling steadily for over a week—something that hasn't happened in over a month. However, every

Paolo Greco 08:10 2025-05-22 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 22: The Market Once Again Responds Clearly to Trump

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to move north on Wednesday, even though, at first glance, there appeared to be no apparent reason for it. Yes, the inflation report—the only release

Paolo Greco 08:09 2025-05-22 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 22? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are several important macroeconomic reports scheduled for release on Thursday. Business activity indexes for May's services and manufacturing sectors will be released in Germany, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom

Paolo Greco 06:31 2025-05-22 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.