Review of Trades and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 152.06 level in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a valid buying opportunity for the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by more than 50 points.

The pair's volatility is now entirely dependent on real actions from Donald Trump. He previously announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on copper and aluminum imports worldwide. If these tariffs are implemented, risk assets, including the yen, may come under increased pressure. The extent of USD/JPY's rise will depend on the scale and duration of these measures.

If the tariffs are a short-term move aimed at gaining leverage in trade negotiations, the downside may be limited. However, if they persist, investors will likely shift towards safe-haven assets such as gold and the U.S. dollar, intensifying negative pressure on the yen. The lack of key U.S. economic data today may further support this scenario.

For today's intraday strategy, I will focus on executing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2 in continuation of the downward trend.

Buy Signal for USD/JPY

Scenario #1: Buy USD/JPY when the price reaches 152.36 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 152.95. At 152.95, I will exit long positions and sell the pair in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point pullback. Bullish momentum is expected within the range-bound movement.Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 151.93 level, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. The expected targets are 152.36 and 152.95.

Sell Signal for USD/JPY

Scenario #1: Sell USD/JPY after the price drops below 151.93 (red line on the chart), leading to a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 151.39, where I plan to exit short positions and enter long trades on a rebound (expecting a 20-25 point move in the opposite direction). Bearish momentum will be part of a broader correction.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 152.36, while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. The expected targets are 151.93 and 151.39.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – Recommended buy entry point.
• Thick green line – Expected Take Profit level, as further growth is unlikely beyond this point.
• Thin red line – Recommended sell entry point.
• Thick red line – Expected Take Profit level, as further decline is unlikely beyond this point.
• MACD Indicator: Always check for overbought and oversold zones before entering the market.

Important. Novice Forex traders need to make their entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid falling into sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. If you decide to trade during the news release, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management, but trade in large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, following the example of the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decision-making based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.