Friday's Trade Analysis:

EUR/USD 1H Chart

On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair followed a bearish trajectory, aligning with macroeconomic data expectations. However, this movement was not entirely straightforward, much like the economic reports themselves.

The U.S. released two critical reports, directly influencing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) - the U.S. economy added only 143K jobs in January, falling short of the forecast. However, the December figure was revised up from 256K to 307K, making the overall data less negative. This mixed result made it unclear whether the report was positive or negative. Unemployment Rate - declined for the second consecutive time, dropping from 4.1% to 4.0%, which was unexpectedly strong. Overall, this set of data supported the U.S. dollar, leading to its appreciation by the end of the trading session.

EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart

On Friday, the 5-minute chart formed multiple trading signals. No valid signals before the U.S. session. After the U.S. labor market data release, volatility surged. Initial price rejection at 1.0359, but due to the mostly positive nature of the U.S. data, further downside was expected. An hour later, the price broke below the 1.0334–1.0359 zone, but downward movement quickly stalled. Thus, no substantial profit opportunity from these trades.

Trading Recommendations for Monday, February 10

On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD remains in a medium-term downtrend. The local uptrend was invalidated, but has since resumed. The fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop continues to favor the U.S. dollar, suggesting further euro weakness. However, the daily chart suggests that an upward correction could last a few more weeks.

On Monday, the market may exhibit weak movement, with EUR/USD leaning toward slight gains, as traders remain cautious about buying the U.S. dollar aggressively.

On the 5-minute chart, the levels should be considered 1.0156, 1.0221, 1.0269–1.0277, 1.0334–1.0359, 1.0433–1.0451, 1.0526, 1.0596, 1.0678, 1.0726–1.0733, 1.0797–1.0804, 1.0845–1.0851.

ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech, which is the only key event on Monday. No major economic reports have been released in the Eurozone recently, and the ECB meeting occurred not long ago. Thus, no significant market-moving comments are expected from Lagarde.

Basic Trading System Rules

1. The strength of a signal depends on the time taken for its formation (bounce or breakout from a level). The quicker the signal forms, the stronger it is.
2. If two or more false signals occur at a level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. During a ranging (flat) market, signals may be unreliable. If a flat pattern is detected, it's better to stop trading.
4. Trading positions should be opened between the start of the European session and mid-American session. All positions should be closed manually afterward.
5. On the hourly chart, MACD signals should be used only when volatility is high and a clear trend (confirmed by a trendline or channel) is present.
6. If two levels are close to each other (5–20 points apart), they should be treated as a single support/resistance zone.
7. When the price moves 15 points in the expected direction, place the Stop Loss at breakeven.

Chart Explanations

• Support & Resistance Levels – Key levels where traders may enter/exit trades. Take Profit orders can be placed near these levels.
• Trendlines & Channels – (Red lines) Indicate the current market trend, guiding trade direction.
• MACD (14,22,3) – A momentum indicator that can provide additional trading signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, you should trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Those who start trading on the forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.