Review of Trades and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

The 149.19 level was tested when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar at that point. The subsequent rise in the USD/JPY pair led to a test of 149.49, which occurred just as MACD was beginning to rise from zero, confirming a proper entry for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair gained over 50 points.

Later today, traders should closely monitor speeches by FOMC members Michelle Bowman and Michael S. Barr. Their remarks on the current economic outlook, inflation trends, and monetary policy prospects could provide valuable insights into the Federal Reserve's future actions.

Markets will be watching for their views on recent GDP, inflation, and labor market data. Any hints of a hawkish stance, suggesting that rates could remain unchanged for longer, may strengthen the US dollar. Conversely, dovish comments that signal potential rate cuts could support risk assets. It is important to note that FOMC members' opinions may vary, and their remarks do not always reflect the official stance of the Federal Reserve. However, analyzing speeches from influential figures like Bowman and Barr can help form a clearer picture of monetary policy direction and its potential impact on financial markets.

For my intraday strategy, I will prioritize executing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY at 150.10 (green line on the chart), targeting an increase toward 150.67. At 150.67, I will exit long positions and initiate short positions for a 30-35 point pullback. The bullish outlook is valid within the framework of an upward correction.

Important: Before entering a long position, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I will also buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 149.64, provided MACD is in the oversold area. This setup should limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a rebound toward 150.10 and 150.67.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I will consider selling USD/JPY if the price falls below 149.64 (red line on the chart), expecting a quick decline toward 149.10. At 149.10, I plan to exit short trades and buy the pair back, expecting a 20-25 point rebound. Selling pressure on USD/JPY could intensify at any moment.

Important: Before entering a short position, ensure MACD is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I will also sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 150.10, with MACD in the overbought zone. This should limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal toward 149.64 and 149.10.

Key Levels on the Chart

• Thin green line: Entry price for long trades.
• Thick green line: Expected Take Profit level or potential resistance, where further growth is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for short trades.
• Thick red line: Expected Take Profit level or potential support, where further declines are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Signals overbought and oversold conditions.

Trading Tips for Beginners

Beginner traders should exercise caution when entering the market, especially before the release of key economic reports. It is best to avoid trading during major news events to prevent excessive volatility. If you do trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop losses can quickly wipe out your account, especially if you lack risk management and use large positions.

For consistent success, traders need a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based solely on short-term market movements is a losing strategy for intraday traders.