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03.02.2025 12:57 PM
歐元/美元。 分析與預測
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今天,歐元/美元對面臨重大壓力,跌至1.0200,創下三週低點。

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現貨價格現正逼近兩年多以來的最低水平,上一次出現在一月份,且看似易於延續這多月以來的下跌趨勢。

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由於美國總統唐納·川普決定對加拿大和墨西哥的商品加徵25%的關稅,以及對中國商品再加徵10%的關稅,導致美元大幅增強。此舉標誌著一場全球新貿易戰的開端,且抑制了投資者對風險資產的興趣。隨著投資者尋求避險資產,對歐元/美元對施加了更多下降壓力。

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此外,川普在週五晚上宣布將對歐盟的商品徵收關稅。這一舉動,加上歐洲央行(ECB)的鴿派立場,持續削弱歐元。上週,ECB將借貸成本降低了25個基點,為進一步降息留出了可能性,這加劇了歐元的不樂觀前景,並進一步助長了圍繞歐元/美元對的看跌情緒。相較於歐洲央行,美聯儲的鷹派立場支持了美元,進而增加了歐元/美元進一步下跌的可能性。

儘管近期美國國債收益率有所回落可能會為美元提供支撐,但整體基本面背景暗示現貨價格的最小阻力路徑可能是向下的。

從技術角度來看,相對強弱指數(RSI)正接近超賣區域,表明近期可能會有短期修正的可能性。

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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