Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 147.64 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly downward from the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. The second test of 147.64 took place when the MACD indicator was already in the oversold zone, allowing Scenario #2 for buying to materialize, leading to a strong increase in the pair.

In the second half of the day, key U.S. data will be released, including the Producer Price Index (PPI), Core PPI (excluding food and energy prices), initial jobless claims, and continuing unemployment claims. A negative shift in these indicators and a rise in jobless claims in the U.S. could weigh on the dollar, as this would push the Federal Reserve toward a more dovish stance. Weak macroeconomic data, especially in the labor sector, traditionally puts pressure on the national currency. An increase in unemployment claims signals a slowing economy and worsening business prospects, which could prompt the Fed to adopt a softer monetary policy, possibly even considering rate cuts.

For intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at 148.34 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 148.86 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.86, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 point decline from that level. The pair's upward correction remains the primary expectation. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 148.02 twice in a row, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise can be expected toward 148.34 and 148.86.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after breaking below 148.02 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 147.64, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20-25 point rebound from this level. Selling pressure on the pair could emerge at any moment. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 148.34 twice in a row, while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline can be expected toward 148.02 and 147.64.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – Expected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – Expected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it is essential to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notice for Beginner Traders

Beginner traders in the Forex market should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news events, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without proper risk management.

Finally, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for intraday traders.