In my morning analysis, I highlighted the 1.0437 level as a key decision point for entering the market. Reviewing the five-minute chart, a false breakout occurred around this level, providing an entry for long positions. However, the pair failed to gain momentum, leading to loss fixation. Given this, the technical outlook was revised for the second half of the day.

Long Positions on EUR/USD

The euro resumed its decline due to the lack of significant economic data from the eurozone and concerns that Donald Trump's trade war could pose serious risks to the global economy. Later in the session, data on building permits and housing starts in the U.S. will be released, followed by the FOMC meeting minutes. The minutes are unlikely to reveal anything new, but the risk of a further decline in the euro and strengthening of the U.S. dollar remains high.

If the pair continues to decline on U.S. statistics, I will consider long positions after a false breakout at 1.0409, aiming for a rise toward the resistance at 1.0443, established during the European session. A breakout and retest of this range from above will confirm a buy entry, targeting 1.0475, with the final target at 1.0512, where profits will be locked in.

If EUR/USD declines further and lacks buying interest near 1.0409, euro bulls will lose control, allowing sellers to drive the pair down to 1.0376. Only after a false breakout at this level will I consider buying the euro. A bounce-buy entry is planned from 1.0321, aiming for a 30–35 point intraday correction.

Short Positions on EUR/USD

Bears continue to exert gradual pressure on the pair, while buyers remain inactive. U.S. economic data might influence market sentiment, though I am skeptical. If the pair rises, 1.0443 will be the key resistance to defend. Losing this level will trigger a bullish comeback. To confirm bearish presence, sellers must establish a false breakout at this level, signaling that major market participants are betting on further euro declines.

A successful push lower will target 1.0409, with a breakout and retest from below, supported by the FOMC minutes and strong U.S. data, reinforcing further downside toward 1.0376. If momentum builds, 1.0321 will be the ultimate bearish target, where I will take profits.

If EUR/USD rises in the second half of the day and bears fail to act at 1.0443, where the moving averages also align in favor of sellers, bulls may gain control, leading to a further rise. In that case, I will wait until 1.0475 for new sell opportunities, but only after an unsuccessful breakout attempt. A bounce-sell entry is planned from 1.0512, expecting a 30–35 point downward correction.

COT Report (Commitments of Traders)

The February 11 COT report showed an increase in both long and short positions, with fewer buyers than sellers. However, this report does not reflect the recent phone call between Putin and Trump, which could have shifted market sentiment toward euro buyers. The U.S. dollar remains weak, especially given the lackluster U.S. economic data in recent weeks.

According to the report, long non-commercial positions increased by 3,040 to 165,594, while short non-commercial positions rose by 8,851 to 230,019, reducing the gap between longs and shorts by 2,856.

Indicator Signals

Moving Averages

The pair trades below the 30 and 50-day SMAs, confirming bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Lower boundary support is located around 1.0425, which could provide a temporary floor.

Indicator Descriptions

• Moving Averages (SMA) smooth price fluctuations and indicate trend direction:
  • 50-period SMA (yellow)
  • 30-period SMA (green)
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence):
  • Fast EMA – 12-period
  • Slow EMA – 26-period
  • Signal SMA – 9-period
• Bollinger Bands:
  • 20-period setting
• Non-commercial traders: Hedge funds and institutions using futures for speculation
• Net non-commercial positions: Difference between long and short contracts held by speculative traders